Q2 2026 Texas Read
Published August 2026 · Texas · 50–300 Unit Mid-Market · 1980–2018 Vintage
The Hudson Observation
Hudson's review of county records shows the Texas mid-market re-entering a liquid phase: 142 properties changed hands in Dallas–Fort Worth last year, the most since 2022; Houston recorded 64 against 27 at the 2023 trough; Austin's segment turnover lifted to 7.2% after holding a flat band through the correction. Rents did not lead this recovery — capital did. Buyers appear to be underwriting the coming supply reset rather than waiting for the operating recovery to become obvious.
For owners, that creates a more important question than where rents are today: how is the market underwriting your property right now? Hudson Multifamily Group works with owners to answer that question before a sale, refinance, or hold decision is made.
01 · House ViewLiquidity returned before the rent recovery
Texas multifamily exits the second quarter with the supply correction visibly breaking. Construction pipelines have contracted in every metro this edition covers: Dallas–Fort Worth's has contracted for roughly three years and sits roughly 43% below its 2023 peak[1][8], Houston is down to roughly 13,100 units under construction with the pullback sharpest inside the urban core[5][3], and Austin, after absorbing nearly 97,000 new units since 2020 (close to 40% of its standing inventory), is down to roughly 21,200 with starts declining sharply[1][4]. Statewide, Texas A&M's Real Estate Research Center projects fewer than 35,000 units delivering across Texas in 2026, after 93,000 in the prior twelve months[14]. Nationally, demand has exceeded new supply on a trailing four-quarter basis for the first time since early 2022[2].
Capital moved before rents did. Walker & Dunlop's agency originations rose 109% year over year in the first quarter as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac engage earlier in the asset lifecycle[9], and Hudson's own analysis of county records shows mid-market transaction velocity recovering in all three metros covered below: the most active Dallas–Fort Worth year since 2022, Houston more than doubling off its 2023 trough, and Austin lifting above the flat band it held through the correction. Rents remain negative across the majors, and the Dallas Fed puts concessions at six to eight weeks of free rent, ten to twelve in the softest Texas submarkets[6]; the rent inflection reads as a late-2026 to 2027 event.
The house view: for owners of 50–300 unit, 1980–2018 vintage assets, preparation, not timing, determines the outcome.
Key risk: a rate shock that stalls the capital-markets recovery before rents inflect.
1.7%
Texas employment growth forecast, 2026 (revised down in the August 21 update)
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas [6]
~43%
DFW construction pipeline below its 2023 peak after roughly three years of contraction
Published research [1][8]
+1.3%
Austin Q2 rent growth, the first quarterly gain since fall 2022
RealPage Analytics [4]
8.7%
DFW mid-market turnover 2025, up from 5.0% in 2024
Hudson analysis of public records
02 · Transaction RealityWhat the county records show
Texas is a non-disclosure state: sale prices are not publicly recorded, and any dollar-volume figure you read is a modeled estimate. Properties traded, doors traded, and turnover, drawn directly from county records, are the grounded activity signal. Hudson builds these from the public records themselves, for the specific segment we cover:
- Dallas–Fort Worth (1,679 mid-market properties, ~301,000 units across the metro’s four core counties): segment turnover ran 10.1% (2021) → 9.5% (2022) → 5.0% (2023) → 5.0% (2024) → 8.7% (2025), with 142 properties changing hands last year, the most since 2022, roughly 26,200 doors in all. The trough is behind.
- Houston (723 properties, ~142,500 units in the core county): 15.6% (2021) → 4.0% (2023) → 9.1% (2025). 64 properties traded last year against 27 at the 2023 trough, roughly 12,900 doors — more than twice the trough-year pace.
- Austin (182 properties, ~29,600 units in the core county): turnover held between 4.2% and 7.2% in every year from 2021 through 2025, peaking at 7.2% in 2025 — the mid-market kept trading straight through the correction. Liquidity never left; pricing did.
Source: Hudson Multifamily Group — proprietary analysis of Texas county records, filtered to Hudson's 50–300 unit mid-market segment (1980s–2010s-vintage analysis set; coverage runs 1980–2018 and the series is refreshed quarterly). Counts are distinct properties, not transactions. This edition's analysis set expanded (Dallas–Fort Worth now covers four core counties where earlier reports covered three), so the levels are not directly comparable to earlier reports. The Austin series covers Travis County, the metro's core: Williamson and Hays counties are part of the Austin MSA but are not yet in the analysis set, so the Austin universe is understated — a coverage gap, not a market finding. The Austin series is also unscreened, as its public records do not support the filtering applied in the other metros. Counts reflect recorded ownership transfers, may include non-arms-length transfers, and the most recent year is partial and subject to revision as records are updated. Directional estimates, not verified totals. The underlying methodology is proprietary to Hudson Multifamily Group.
03 · Market-by-MarketDFW, Houston, and Austin at the quarter's close
Dallas–Fort Worth
- First-half net absorption of 18,600 units ranked second in the nation, behind only New York, and outpaced deliveries [2]
- Stabilized occupancy 92.3% in April, off 70 basis points over the year; asking rents −1.6% year-over-year on a trailing three-month basis (metro average near $1,524), narrowing from −2.1% [1]
- The pipeline has contracted for roughly three years and sits roughly 43% below its 2023 peak, with about 45,500 units underway as of May and starts down 7.8% year over year; 7,962 units delivered through May [1][8]
- Nationally, the concession gradient favors established assets: 45% of lease-ups offered an average of 6.4 weeks free, versus under 25% and about four weeks at longer-stabilized properties [13]
- Metro transaction volume grew for a second consecutive year in 2025, up 3% on the year; cap rates are expected to hold near current levels through 2026, with room to compress if fundamentals continue to recover [3]
- Multifamily debt maturities cluster through 2026 and rise to roughly $3.0B in 2027; refinancings, extensions, and restructurings are expected to drive activity as they land [10]
The read: the correction has found its floor. Capital is ahead of fundamentals, the rent inflection reads late-2026 to 2027, and the window is opening on demand before it opens on pricing: the market is paying for preparation now and will pay for performance later.
Houston
- Effective rents gained 1.0% to open the year, and metro vacancy recorded its first quarterly decline in over two years [3][7]
- Stabilized occupancy near 91.6% in April, off 100 basis points as the last of the supply wave was absorbed; on the metro-wide basis, overall occupancy printed 88.1% for the second quarter against 88.6% a year earlier [1][5]
- Twelve-month net absorption of 7,492 units, led by Class B — the pattern that favors workforce and value-add assets at the center of the mid-market [5]
- Roughly 13,100 units remain under construction, with 4,719 delivered in the second quarter and the pullback sharpest inside the urban core [5][3][7]
- Transaction counts rose 39% in 2025; properties built 1980–2008 made up more than half of recent sales, and Texas-based sellers fell from a prior-five-year average of 55% of transactions to 39% as out-of-state capital took share [3]
The read: early recovery, and the cleanest setup in Texas for a prepared mid-market seller. Supply is breaking, demand is steady and healthcare-led, and the vintage Hudson covers is what is actually trading.
Austin
- The second quarter recorded the first quarterly rent gain since fall 2022, at +1.3%; asking rents remain −3.7% year-over-year (trailing three-month average near $1,508) [4][1]
- The class split is the mid-market story: Class A rents are down just 0.8% year over year while Class B runs −3.9% and Class C −11.6% — the recovery is reaching new product first, not this segment [4]
- First-half absorption of 13,200 units ranked fifth nationally and outpaced deliveries; stabilized occupancy slipped 90 basis points to 91.8% [2][1]
- Nearly 97,000 units have delivered since 2020, close to 40% of standing inventory; roughly 21,200 units remain under construction with starts declining sharply [4][1]
- Sales volume ran $444M through May and average price per unit finished essentially flat year over year while rents fell — capital is pricing the recovery, not the trailing income [1]
The read: Austin absorbed the heaviest supply shock of any major Texas market and is the first to show it clearing, but the headline inflection has not yet arrived in the mid-market segment. For owners, Austin rewards patience on price and urgency on preparation.
04 · Owner Advisory PerspectiveSell, hold, or refinance — the Q2 frame
Sell
Liquidity is back ahead of rents. The county records show Dallas–Fort Worth's most active mid-market year since 2022 and Houston up sharply from the trough, with out-of-state capital taking share in the vintage that is actually trading. A prepared 1980–2018 vintage asset meets a real, active buyer pool today. Readiness, not timing, determines whether you capture it.
Hold
Rents remain negative across the majors, concessions are live, and vacancy is projected to peak this year. An owner with no maturity pressure and a stabilized asset is holding into a genuine supply-side recovery as pipelines clear into 2027 — Austin makes the strongest hold case of the Texas majors this quarter — provided the debt structure cooperates.
Refinance
Agency lenders are competing for exactly this product, and multifamily is the least exposed major property type in the 2026 maturity schedule: 13% of balances come due, just 4% of the agency book against 25% of securitized balances[12]. Securitized multifamily delinquency reached 7.23% in June[11]. That stress sits with unprepared owners, not the agency-dominated whole. An owner facing a 2026–27 maturity should model a refinance against a sale. The numbers decide, not the calendar.
Sources & Methodology
The analysis, advisory framework, and public-records work in this briefing are Hudson Multifamily Group's own. Bracketed references [n] point to the published third-party research below, used as inputs and cross-checks. Figures are reported as published; where providers differ, ranges are shown. All sources are publicly available, current as of the latest available prints (Q2 2026) and county public records through mid-2026. Texas is a non-disclosure state — transaction volumes, price-per-unit figures, and cap rates are aggregated estimates published by the referenced providers, not specific transaction prices. Segment definition: 50–300 unit properties built from 1980 to within roughly eight years of publication (currently 1980–2018); the vintage window rolls forward each year. This edition's market reads cover Dallas–Fort Worth, Houston, and Austin. The Q3 2026 edition, incorporating quarter-end prints, publishes in mid Q4.
- Yardi Matrix — Dallas, Houston, and Austin Multifamily Market Reports, July 2026 (asking rents, stabilized occupancy, construction pipelines, deliveries, and sales volume, on a trailing three-month basis through May)
- Cushman & Wakefield — U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat, Q2 2026 (national absorption vs supply on a trailing four-quarter basis; first-half absorption leaders)
- Northmarq — DFW, Houston, and Austin multifamily research, Q4 2025–Q1 2026 (transaction activity, vintage and seller mix, cap-rate trends)
- RealPage Analytics — "Austin Apartment Market Reaches an Inflection Point," Carl Whitaker, 15 July 2026 (Q2 2026 quarterly rent growth; class-level rent splits; delivery totals since 2020)
- Greater Houston Partnership — Monthly Update: Multifamily, Q2 2026, and 2026 Employment Forecast (overall occupancy, absorption, units under construction, deliveries)
- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas — Texas Employment Forecast 2026 (1.7% as of the August 21 update); "Texas multifamily housing yet to stabilize; downside risks remain," Southwest Economy, March 2026 (concession depth and duration)
- Marcus & Millichap / IPA — 2026 Investment Forecasts (DFW, Houston, Austin)
- Colliers — DFW Multifamily Reports, Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 (DFW construction pipeline series; the Q1 2026 print counts eleven straight quarters of decline, 43,194 units in progress)
- Walker & Dunlop — Q1 2026 results and underwriting-trends research (agency lending volume, GSE competitiveness)
- Transwestern — Dallas–Fort Worth Multifamily Market, Q1 2026 (debt-maturity schedule)
- Trepp — multifamily CMBS delinquency 7.23% in June 2026 (+28 bps on the month), as reported by MBA NewsLink, July 2026 (securitized loans only — a stress signal for the riskier slice of the debt market, not the agency-dominated whole)
- Mortgage Bankers Association — 2025 Commercial Real Estate Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes, released 9 February 2026 (13% of multifamily balances maturing in 2026; 4% of the agency book vs 25% of securitized)
- ALN Apartment Data — Strong Demand Masks Stress in Existing Multifamily Stock, April 2026 (Q1 2026 stabilized-stock and concession data; shared with link per ALN’s published sharing terms)
- Texas A&M University, Texas Real Estate Research Center — 2026 Texas Real Estate Forecast, January 2026 (statewide multifamily inventory, delivery, and rent outlook)
- Hudson Multifamily Group — proprietary analysis of Texas county records (methodology proprietary)
Also consulted and cross-checked at publication, not cited above: Matthews — Dallas–Fort Worth and Austin Multifamily Market Reports, Q1 2026; Jay Parsons — rental-housing economist; 2026 multifamily commentary, jayparsons.com.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION & DISCLAIMER
This report is published by Hudson Multifamily Group for general informational purposes only. It presents market-level data and analysis for the Texas multifamily sector. It is not an appraisal, broker price opinion, or opinion of value for any specific property, and it does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, investment, or other professional advice. No part of this report has been prepared in accordance with the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice.
The information in this report was compiled from public records and third-party sources believed to be reliable. Hudson Multifamily Group has not independently verified all information and makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. Market statistics may include estimates and are subject to revision without notice. Texas is a non-disclosure state: transaction prices are not publicly recorded, and any figures relating to sales activity are directional estimates rather than verified totals. Past performance is not a prediction of future results.
Readers should not make investment, disposition, financing, or other decisions on the basis of this report alone. Any information material to a decision should be independently verified, and readers should consult their own legal, tax, and financial advisors. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Hudson Multifamily Group, The END Group, Co., and their respective principals, employees, and agents disclaim all liability for any loss or damage, direct or indirect, arising from the use of or reliance on this report.
This report is general information and not a solicitation of any property currently listed with another broker.
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